Gen-AI and the Future of Work
SURPRISE! The More Educated and Specialized, May be at Increased Risk of Being Replaced By AI
It is no secret that jobs are going to be affected by artificial intelligence (AI). For those who are students of history, you may know that the relationship between technology and prosperity is an ongoing struggle between humans and automation technology. So AI is simply where automation technology currently is today.
The main theme of the study above from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), is that Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the potential to reshape the global economy, especially in the realm of labor markets. However, the study falls short of providing useful strategies, because it’s one-dimensional and particularly lacks meaningful analysis in the historical context.
Context is everything and information is best understood in context with all the other relevant information around it. Therefore, it is critical when analyzing any claim, fact or assertion, to historically contextualize information towards getting to the objective truth about the problems and solutions. Good decisioning requires identifying any supporting evidence or any contradictions and using the discovered knowledge to improve decision-making.
In the book, Power and Progress, Our 1000-Year Struggle Over Technology & Prosperity, by MIT professors Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson. We learn from their survey of the last one thousand years of history and contemporary evidence, that progress depends more on the choices we make about the technology we use than the technology itself. Also, how we choose to use technology determines the success of it. In other words, it’s always up to us in the end.
Relative to AI and the IMF study on the future of work. Without historical comparisons, their conclusions are weak and not very helpful. This can lead to misleading insights towards ineffective strategy development against the backdrop of an AI-driven future world.
What the evidence also shows is that bold narratives and predictions about the future of work, are usually pushed by those who are positioned to financially benefit the most from those narratives happening. Throughout history, the elite wealthy groups have purposefully pushed narratives that they could attach wealth-creating enterprises to. From aristocratic groups many centuries ago to the new Big Tech elites of today; the patterns are the same.
Therefore, in present times we must be highly skeptical of tech billionaires telling us how to think, where the world is going, and what technology we should be using.
Again, automation technologies and AI will certainly remake the global economy and influence labour markets greatly, but the degree to which we are unable to predict. So we need to look back to tell us about the future. From the agriculture and industrial revolutions over the centuries to automation replacing workers in the manufacturing economy throughout the US Midwest and Rustbelt. The first principle in all these situations is whether or not machines can do the job better, faster, and incredibly cheaper than humans can. If the answer is yes then you are vulnerable to being replaced.
The history of technology has also taught us that, for example, technological inventions and improvements in agriculture revolutions of the European Middle Ages have mostly been pushed by the nobility. Using their privileges to harness knowledge and technology to create enterprises for wealth creation. Building cathedrals and grand homes, while uninformed peasants carried the burden and remained impoverished. This was exemplified during the Luddite era, a 19th-century movement of English textile workers who opposed the use of certain types of cost-saving machinery, and often destroyed the machines in clandestine raids.
Today the Amazons of the world are constantly adding machines to increase productivity and decrease human resources costs and wages in their warehouses. Times and technologies change but human nature and relationships between labour and corporations have not. Today, the Jeff Bezos of the world are building grand estates and ultra-mega yachts, as a show of incredible wealth, status and power. Billionaires like Bezos and Richard Branson, are spending billions of dollars to build rockets to ride up into space, while child poverty, climate change, inequality, and mental health are hitting crisis levels.
The first hundred years or so of industrialization in England, delivered stagnant incomes and the growth of the urban working poor. And in the last 30 years, incomes have remained stagnant.
In this decade of digital transformation, AI is unnecessarily undermining jobs and democracies everywhere, due to excessive automation, massive data collection, and intrusive surveillance. According to the authors of Power and Progress. Once again, the New Tech Aristocracy is pushing all the typical Neo-conservative narratives but society too is acquiescing power to billionaires and corporations, to be the arbiters of their lives.
However, it doesn’t have to be this way. AI and related technologies can be used not primarily to replace workers with machines but to empower them instead. Generative AI is rapidly democratizing access to technical capabilities once dominated by a single industry or profession. Therefore, it can be used purposefully to harness and to augment human ingenuity. But it comes down to how we decide to use AI, either as a tool to serve humanity best or allowing it and the Big Tech corporations to dictate our lives. One thing is for sure. We can’t leave our humanity in the hands of a few hubristic billionaires.
Getting back to the IMF study, it does offer a useful look, however, at the education and technology specialization relative to job security and rising incomes. The study points out that education alone, as it once did in the past, will not be enough to keep you sheltered from the disruptive storms of AI.
Till now, the narrative has been that the more educated you were the more protected your employment and earning power would be, regardless of technological changes. But it was that the less educated among us that were the most vulnerable. However, what has become increasingly evident, is that AI will be significantly disruptive to even previously “safe” professions like doctors, lab workers, lawyers, finance and investment professionals, and more.
For example, the IMF sees AI being applied to medical consultations which can meaningfully lower the cost of universal health care programs around the world. And when it comes to those who specialize in very technical work — AI is increasingly becoming better at that work, and is on the horizon for many more jobs and industries.
The IMF paper says that in virtually all countries examined they found that workers with more education are increasingly more likely to be more disrupted by AI.
Recently Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang made waves when he diverged away from the traditional tech industry stance, about coding being an essential skill for the younger generation to learn. The reality is that algorithms are writing algorithms now, so the risk is that a singular focus on code writing will lead one to become part of the developing new tech factory workers of the 21st century.
The IMF study’s main recommendation or conclusion is:
“In this evolving landscape, advanced economies and more developed emerging markets need to focus on upgrading regulatory frameworks and supporting labour reallocation while safeguarding those adversely affected. Emerging markets and developing economies should prioritize developing digital infrastructure and digital skills.”
We may believe that we know how the world will unfold, but we don’t, how the future unfolds is independent of beliefs or predictions. So having a framework for policy makers to make important regulatory decisions is in the best interest of humanity. This is the overriding objective of the applied intelligence | ai methodology.
Decisioning is complex and dynamic, with a lot of moving parts, so utilizing historical contextualization analysis is very helpful in solving problems. As it has been over the last 1000 years or so. Technology fundamentally remains a tool to serve human capacity and ingenuity. Generative AI, used properly, is extraordinarily useful for our many tasks.
The 6ai Mission
Generative AI is rapidly democratizing access to technical capabilities once dominated by a single industry or profession.
6ai utilizes GenAI purposefully and responsibly to augment human capacity and ingenuity. Creating extraordinary value for organizations and individuals, which also works to serve humanity best.
