Investing through applied intelligence | ap3
Perry C. Douglas
February 15, 2022
The single most powerful pattern for identifying a successful venture/private equity investment is the investor’s ability to find extraordinary value in unexpected places. Caribbean markets are typically overlooked because they are considered too small, unsophisticated, and inefficient. This is based mainly on biases and misperceptions coming out of colonialism, but these misperceptions do endure, unfortunately. Combined with a lack of interest and understanding of economies, it is difficult to lure investors to the region. Nevertheless, the investment ‘establishment’ perspective is rooted in the enduring legacy of slavery and colonialism. However, it is the very examination of the colonial past that provides insight on massive investment opportunities in the region — applied intelligence is the disciplined methodology that is positioned to draw useful insight out scientifically. Value can only be created by first changing the mindset and aggressiveness of local populations, which will then resonate and connect with other like frequencies in the universe. Investors will gravitate. Therefore, it would be helpful to understand how venture capital investing works outside the region, because if we don’t know, how can we do it?
When you invest via the method of picking companies, for example, always looking for the future winners; investing often results in highly skewed power-law distributions where non-linear relationships amplify results. In short, only a small handful of opportunities ever become “hyper high performers,” most opportunities are “low performers.” And the probability of finding many “hyper high performers” is extremely low. Therefore, in the current technological and knowledge-based environment, identifying major long-term transcending investment trends in the extant macro environment is critical to developing long-term profitable enterprises.
Successful entrepreneur Peter Thiel has highlighted that the “power-law” of investing implies two important rules for venture capitalists (VCs) investing. “First, only invest in companies that have the potential to return the value of the entire fund…this leads to rule number two: because rule number one is so restrictive, there can’t be any other rules.” However, it should also be noted that the problem with that approach is that trying to pick winners intuitively is incredibly difficult. So, this attitude Thiel has towards investing says that opportunities must be big and scalable, nobody is interested in taking risks for little return. Today, investors think in billions and good technology must underlay the enterprise.
However, truth be told, most VCs, even the Peter Thiel’s of the world seldom can find a run of winners. Most billionaires’ founders turned VC; their wealth is usually derived from being founders first; not from being fund managers. Thiel’s record as a fund manager is no better than the next VC guy according to the data, there is no evidence that billionaire founders have special superpowers and can transition to become spectacular, or even decent at picking winners.
The industry’s highest unicorn-spotting rate (the ability to find that hyper-performing opportunity) is 8.06% vs. a 2.5% average for the other top VC firms. It’s impossible to know which fledgling start-ups or existing operations will become the big winners. Even the very top VCs who swing for the fences every time get it right less than 1 out of 30 times. As Marc Andreessen of Andreessen Horowitz points out, each year, of the 4,000 technology start-ups seeking VC funding, only 200 (or 5%) are seriously fundable, with “15 of those generating 95% of all economic returns… even the top VCs write off half their deals.” No one yet has proven able to corner the market by picking the winners. Historical data also confirms that most investments will return very little or even lose money, and the prototypical ‘successful’ venture fund…many of their investments go to zero. But you don’t often hear about that because they ride the winners to glory.
For Caribbean enterprise growth, the purpose of providing this information is not to discourage, but to show how incredibly difficult it is to compete and win in the universe, the competition is deep and well-funded. Therefore, growth agendas can’t mess around by any measure, this is serious business, a matter of survival, we can’t afford to come half-assed to the game. Unpreparedness leads to failure, and good preparation requires a defined system of enterprise building with industrial engineering included. Also, the Caribbean is too far back to afford the luxury of failures like the developed economies can. Failure is 100% not an option for the Caribbean!
The methodology application approach puts ego aside and looks to a more time-tested, scientific approach, and seeks to identify investment opportunities that can produce not only extraordinary returns but can also contribute to great societal change. Investing is not for wishful thinkers, investing is a long-term affair that can change the reality of a country, from poverty to prosperity, so take it deadly seriously, and understand that without a credible investment strategy and application for execution, extinction of the Caribbean species creeps closer. Without vision, strategy, constant attention and work through knowledge-based ecosystems, there is just no chance; applied intelligence pays close attention to history, investment patterns, information, and applies tactics guided by fact, not theories. Developing promising enterprises and industries that have the highest potential to capitalize on trends, is the prime objective of the ap3 approach.
applied intelligence ap3 simplified:
Transitioning to the digital age through the application of applied intelligence will make it increasingly possible to identify the undercurrents of evolving megatrends, and the application of technology ecosystems to extract value from those trends. Agriculture is the primary growth prospect and engine for the future economic viability and prosperity of the Caribbean industry, NOT tourism. Tourism never has and never will be!
Therefore, real sustainable opportunities for the Caribbean rest within combining agriculture and technology — Agrtech! Opportunities exist where advanced technology investments can become the main catalyst for the disruptive transformation of the region. To transform Caribbean economies from manual, low-income producing economies to high-value exporting ones; significant technology and knowledge-based investments are required to get there.
The applied intelligence system is based on spotting the developing undercurrents of the advancing waves of economic disruption, by spotting the mega trending opportunities. Good investing occurs through innovation, historical examination of trends in wealth creation, fact-based analysis, spotting and evaluating genuine society changing opportunities that can multiply exponentially.
THE INVESTMENT PROCESS for the future success of any enterprise is imperative. To recognize technologies extraordinary enterprise worth and apply them to the right value advancing tasks and processes is the way forward in industrially engineering the region. Science and process over intuition. So, the scientific processes applied through ap3 will use methods to build fact-based investment solutions to solve complex business and societal problems. Solving problems has always been the path to creating tremendous value for societies through entrepreneurship.
From developing new Intellectual Property (IP) to generating new business, the applied intelligence industrial engineering process funnels opportunities using data science to help separate the real market opportunities from the noise, distractions, the mirages. Real opportunities must be the target to create extraordinary long-term value for our investors, entrepreneurs, communities, and countries. With the scientifically holistic approach, everyone wins!
This provides broad strategic value goals with applied intelligence underwriting strategic plans with operational vigour, that addresses enterprise value creation and challenges the norms, the status quo. By understanding what an enterprise’s future objectives are, processes can be useful in developing road maps to achieve them.
· We use data science and advanced techniques to discover new insights by focusing on the core business of any organization; applying data science that projects how the investment in firms can operate more efficiently and effectively.
· By using and seeing data science as a managed service within the investment process, investment teams can handle the data more effectively, allowing entrepreneurs, for example, to realize the value.
· applied intelligence provides a clear playbook for integrating and capitalizing on advanced technologies across an entire company and in any industry. With a strong dedication to helping real people, the ap3 system is scientifically intuitive and brings an owner’s mindset approach to exist on the precipice of business and technology.
Using artificial intelligence and machine learning, ap3 is a constructed series of processes to identify the white space of evolving mega trending industries, that can offer opportunities to generate $100M+ market opportunities. We build full picture views of the target market or industry by establishing early opportunities detection and potential risk signals. We rely on operational improvements, innovation, and tailored growth strategies to develop and build companies of lasting value that can also help move societies forward.
With the power of intelligent technologies, there has never been a better time to develop and launch new products and services in the global marketplace. Our difference is through a systematic and disciplined methodology to optimize transcending investment themes that involve looking at the big picture, then breaking it down to get us from here to there. Always using the history of civilization and entrepreneurship as a guide to identifying the best opportunities, but also to be aware of the patterns of risk formation. Leveraging innovation and collaborating with multiple stakeholders is the very human side of applied intelligence, the ecosystem must include participation from a facilitation perspective, local governments, and organizations towards beneficial socioeconomic impacts on local communities.
HERE ARE THE TOP FIVE ROARING opportunities towards Caribbean New-Economy development:
1. Agriculture Technology
Rapid population growth projected to reach 9 billion by 2050, accompanied by increasing urbanization, and an expanding global middle class will continue to drive demand for specialized, personalized high-value food. Regional agriculture is at a critical juncture, as Caribbean nations seek to balance the achievement of food and nutrition security, the pursuit and development of profitable high value agrtech will be vital to that realization.
Data science is helping us to create significant value in farming all over the world. Intelligence can help in building transformative; smart farming ecosystems, digital marketing and sales platforms accelerate localized agriculture, industry; leveraging land as a competitive natural resource advantage.
2. Towards a Zero-Emissions Based Economy
Land, water, energy, materials, interior, landscape integration, clean, vision, innovation, living, transportation — full ecosystem approach based on the latest innovations. From sustainable Eco-friendly architecture, including energy-efficient equipment and technics, to Electric Vehicle (EV) transportation economy, and lifestyle. Moving towards a Zero-emissions-based economy is the natural evolution of human existence. A green socioeconomic existence will incorporate itself into every part of Caribbean economies. Therefore, significant infrastructure investment opportunities, driven by entrepreneurship and innovation, will create a robust universe of enterprise and start-up growth over the long term for the benefit of the region.
3. Virtual and Telehealth Care
Institutions, especially in healthcare, are attempting to lower the exposure of COVID to patients and workers. So, there is no doubt that many private and public practices have started implementing many telehealth offerings. This will likely continue post-pandemic. The in-person nature of primary care especially stems from a need to ‘see patients’ in person. This is especially the case for relationships between PCPs (primary care physicians/providers) and patients.
However, studies show, that 80% of primary care services can be, delivered virtually. Telehealth visits have surged by 50% over pre-pandemic levels. Mental health care has essentially moved virtually now. IHS Technology predicted that a few years ago, 70 million Americans would use telehealth by 2020. Forrester Research also predicted this number to surge to close to a billion globally by the end of 2020. The pandemic just accelerated things.
Beyond the virtual health focus, there are many other focuses on healthcare that we will see exponential growth going forward, and advancements in biotech, artificial intelligence, machine learning continue to create opportunities to help support diagnosis as well as admin work.
4. Online Education
Education, highly skilled work forces have underpinned successful economies and societies throughout the history of civilization. It’s obvious why online education has had a huge growth spurt since the pandemic began. The history of civilization has been one of adaptation and innovation. So, the awareness that societies must continue to re-skill and up-skill just to remain relevant in the new economy is nothing new. Governments and institutions will have to spend significantly to adjust to the future of learning, to remain competitive, in the ‘build back better’ recovery agenda that many nations have put forward. Therefore, there is a huge opportunity in the market with schools, colleges, specialized learning or skills training, even coaching centres conducting classes via video conferencing. The model for how knowledge and learning will be delivered in the future is being redefined, representing multiple and significant long-term investments and derivative opportunities.
5. Using 5G — Smart Islands
There is no doubt that the demand for higher speed internet and a shift for well-connected homes and businesses has pushed the advancement of 5G. This is because, for better connectivity, we need better networks, increased efficiencies. Many Telcos worldwide are on track to deliver 5G. There are over 380 operators currently investing in 5G; 35+ countries have already launched commercial 5G services. This has proved a fertile ground for start-ups, M&A activity, retooling mature enterprises for future growth that can utilize 5G within its services.
One key area, for example, is how 5G is impacting smart cities across the world, helping municipalities manage their public lighting network and smart city data through sensors. These can connect entire islands and regions, build more efficient services from government services to business services. However, Smart Islands go further; a more efficient running economy means a more profitable one, with more time for a balanced lifestyle and mental well-being.
In the area of smart farming, greater connectivity, for example, can efficiently and effectively create a productivity and output network ecosystem where entire islands can be plugged into the supply, and demand information in agrtech, to maintain global competitive advantages by analyzing and acting on real-time information.
Make it no doubt; the future relevance of the Caribbean territory goes directly through applied intelligence investing.
