The Caribbean & the 21st Century
Where in the Worlds?
For the Caribbean to properly transition to the new economy over the next decade, there must be a firm framework for the understanding of the first principles of economic development and growth; and the natural self-preservation characteristics required to do so. In other words, how the world works, the nature of evolving civilizations, and having a firm transcending economic strategy to execute under. This is what will shape future prosperity.
We must evaluate the best ideas and have disciplined methods of implementation. Given the number of variables at play, it makes sense to produce a limited set of possible worlds against which to assess the quality of ideas being brought forward. Analyzed frameworks and methods are required to improve the success potential of those analyzed selected ideas.
To represent a possible world of select opportunities, its characteristics must be first defined. A characteristic is composed of a property value pair, tied to a particular world and given a function to evaluate any derivative exponential functions generated — an exponent to interpret any values raised. In short, it asserts that a property has a specific value within that world, industry, society, etc. Given a set of worlds, each one will differ by at least one characteristic from every other world, so the world you choose must be most conducive to your country’s natural competitive advantages. But regardless of how good the idea is, the conditions for success are more consequential to outcomes than anything else — those multiple variables. A scientific understanding of that sets a firm footing for us to more reliably represent a set of properties extracted from general categories as useful in the pursuit of enterprise success.
The next step is to determine the requirements of the idea. These requirements will be a set of world characteristics that maximize the idea’s chance of success, again your country’s natural competitive advantages/industries relative to global demand trends. The idea’s requirement will be divided into two parts: 1. the characteristic’s numerical value and 2. the characteristic’s importance to the idea.
Finally, we need a method to measure the variables’ ability to satisfy the idea(s) fruition. To do this, we use an artificial construct from mathematics called a utility. A utility is a numerical value used to represent the amount of benefit that is achieved through the implementation of an idea.
A world better suited for a particular idea will allow that idea to yield a higher utility than that of a world that does not meet the idea’s requirements. The utility is used to allow the evaluator to measure the likelihood that the idea will reach its objective. All ideas have a corresponding world where their implementation is best suited, though; the probabilities of those worlds existing are independent of the idea.
Very simply, the goal is to select ideas and processes that have the highest utility across your selected world for the most probable desirable outcomes. For example, it would not make practical sense to build a fine rug-making business on a Caribbean Island, as it does not possess the necessary competitive advantages of that industry to succeed, and the past negative connotations of using small children with small hands to craft “hand-made rugs” would also be a natural killer to the business idea. So, multiple variables must always be considered including the cognitive environment. It is more logical and sensible to align natural competitive advantages with confirmed global demand trends and respective cognitive environments before you pursue an idea. Just because an idea may sound great, the conditions necessary for its successful outcome is based on how the future is unfolding, relevancy, and that may be independent of the idea itself.
Maximum Utility
For evaluating the maximum utility of an idea, we compute the probability of each possible world occurring for you based on the likelihood of the characteristics being true. Given that we do not know what the future will be, we establish a set of possible worlds and determine their associated probabilities of them being realized. For illustrative purposes, we can use the following equation to calculate the chance of each of the world’s characteristics occurring to the variables defined lower down as “Definition.”
To calculate the probability of each characteristic being realized, we will have to make predictions from the available data or use predictions from trusted sources to help us better quantify things.
We then compute the utility of an idea in a particular world as a function of the requirement and its associated world characteristic, weighted to the probability of that world occurring:
To determine the utility of the idea within a particular world, we will have to create a function that can compare the requirements to the characteristics of the world and return a numerical value based on how well the world satisfies the requirements. Each requirement is weighted by importance such that the utility reflects the ideas hierarchy of needs.
Based on the information from step #1, there is a higher likelihood that each requirement of idea “A” will be met in the most probable world. This yields a higher utility than idea “B” given that the world necessary for idea B to be successful has a lower probability of being true. The utility will be described by a numerical value. The higher the utility, the higher the value. We find the expected value of the idea’s utility by summating all the utilities from each possible world:
After calculating the utility of each idea in each possible world, we will determine the idea’s expected utility, which will give us the expected performance of the idea based on the possible worlds that may occur. This is an important step because we do not know which world will be realized. By calculating the expected utility, we will determine the best idea to select based on the range of possible futures most likely to occur.
All this to say, that the universe is about math, and decision-making is essentially applied mathematics — the application of mathematical thinking to problem-solving in various areas is critical. Here its application is industrial engineering. Therefore, if you are not using data science | AI | ML as a tool in your decisioning, to compete and win, your chances of success in this hyper technology-AI driven world are slim to none! Speed and precision!
applied intelligence provides the intelligence-based framework for decisioning-to-success…
I know you did not sign up for a math class, however, quantitative thinking is of course based on math, so the point is, if we can consciously apply more mathematical thinking approaches in our lives, we will avoid the negative impacts emotion has on our thinking and behaviour. Emotion can control our psyche distracting us away from critical thinking, voiding us of capacity to better assess and quantify ideas and opportunities that can create long-term value for us. Instead, emotion can have us stuck in the abyss of ideology and dogma, fighting against the natural flow of the universe, and you have have no chance against nature. By no means is the applied intelligence process saying there will be a certainty or guarantees, that doesn’t exist. The methodology framework of applied intelligence is saying specifically, that in an increasingly complex and globalized world, working or competing without the utility of intelligent technology will only leave you with a losing record.
If one can’t put aside ego and use the awesome power of machines, to help process, think and make judgments, assisting in delivering better outcomes, then you stand no chance at winning in the 21st century! So, get on with getting on with big data, AI, ML, automation, industrial engineering, bio-engineering etc., technology is your friend. It will help you and make your life better — don’t be the Luddites of the 21st century.
Further, this is the type of applied mathematics that goes into decisioning algorithms, critical calculations the human mind can’t make, and doesn’t have to when AI can help with that. What is the purpose of science if you don’t maximize its value? Don’t use it for your benefit, for happiness? This is the utility in applied intelligence, which utilizes technology to help Caribbean entrepreneurs and policymakers make precise decisions based on real information and derived insight, for better outcomes. There is no more time for philosophy, that’s ego-driven, fact-based discovery is what we need to embed into our culture. We need real and effective solutions. Again, there is no guarantee, but your chances of investment and entrepreneurial success are dramatically improved under applied intelligence versus no intelligence utility or function at all. In simple terms, you can’t compete and win without a strategy and executable tactics.
Demonstrating an understanding of the quantitative process to decisioning is important for success to happen. Randomness always has a lot to do with success, and randomness is an accounted for variable under applied intelligence. Nevertheless, the evidence stands that disciplined and strategic approaches to making decisions, prevail over randomness. The level of technology, information flow, and the sheer complexity of this ever-evolving universe makes it a far-fetched notion that the Caribbean region will not be extinct 100 years from now without the intense application of technology-led growth, to its economies.
There must be a defined framework and rigour to make decisions through, otherwise, we only exist as illogical emotional vessels, wondering like mad and sad complainers at the bottom rungs, the crevasses of the universe. In short, the math must always add up, and if it doesn’t you must figure out why and find the application that will work. We have a moral responsibility to lay the groundwork for future generations to thrive.
The modern world is still young, it is only 2000 years old essentially. So, we must move beyond superstition and religion, emotion and build intellectual capacity and rigour into our culture. Over-reliance on ideology, intuition and faith is antithetical to growth. In a knowledge-based world, such a disposition only leads to more suffering and despair. Human intelligence created the metaphysical universe, but the brilliance of human intelligence was aided enormously by the science and technology it created in the first place. To win in the 21st century, we must get our heads around technology as a core underwriter of economic gains, again, Adam Smith explained this way back in the 18th century, proving that although times change human nature and nature itself remains the same.
